Bitcoin (BTC) price showed a minor rebound, triggering a minor rally ahead of time. Therefore, investors can wait for BTC to slide lower and collect liquidity below a valuable level before triggering a full-blown impulse move. As Kriptokoin.com, we report the weekly Bitcoin price analysis and expected levels.
Bitcoin price needs to complete its downtrend
Bitcoin price is crossing an ascending parallel channel created by combining three highs and two highs formed since Jan 24 . The last two retests of the pattern’s lower trendline led to a bounce to the upper end. The third test is different from the ones that came before it due to the slow downtrend. Moreover, the downtrend that pushed Bitcoin price from $48,189 to $37,702 failed to push it below the equal lows formed around $37,699. Therefore, traders should wait for a downward move that gathers liquidity before climbing higher. A sweep below $37,699 would be the trigger, pushing BTC up 11 percent to retest the mid-$42,125 to $43,766 supply zone. Alternately, this level also coincides with the 200-day SMA, making it a place where strong resistance and a local top can occur. A daily candlestick above $43,766 alone would allow Bitcoin price to rise to $45,510. This move means a 20 percent rise.
Supporting this short-term drop in Bitcoin price is the 30-day Market-To-Realized Value (MVRV) indicator. This indicator is used to measure the average profit/loss of traders who bought BTC in the last month. A random price in the middle of -10 percent to -15 percent is called the “zone of opportunity” because short-term holders are at a loss and are less likely to sell as long-term holders accumulate. Therefore, a local base often forms around these levels. However, the index for BTC is hovering around -7.1 percent, which is quickly above the first local base of -11 percent. Hence, there is a fair chance for the Bitcoin price to drop to these levels again, which harmonizes nicely with the technically described outlook.
Wallet spike fuels bullish anticipation
Although this small drop appears to be on a bearish trend, whales holding in the middle of 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have been trading 2,044 since Feb. 24 increased from 2.193 to 2.193. This spike in the number of wallets holding massive BTC is an indication that these investors are expecting a spike in Bitcoin price. Therefore, the long-term outlook for BTC remains slightly bullish, which is in line with the technical outlook’s target of $45,510.
Regardless of the short-term bearish prospect, the leading cryptocurrency is positioned to reverse the trend. However, if the bears take control and push BTC down, causing the daily candlestick to close below the $34,752 high, it will create a lower bottom and invalidate the bullish thesis. In this case, BTC market makers can pull BTC to collect the sell stops that exist below the $30,000 level.